|
| |
Notes on Understanding the New World Disorder: Effective
Analysis and Our "Wants"
by
Guntram Werther Ph.D.
______________________________________________
The original idea behind the "Notes" was to discuss issues or topics
that help people better judge international events.
That task got sidelined by life; in this instance, life in the form of nine or
so local talks on specific international issues I got wrangled into doing. With
this note, I return to the original idea. I want to discuss how you can better
analyze complex international issues; especially when so many sources conflict.
______________________________________________
Perhaps the most useless and debilitating thing one can bring to the task of
understanding international affairs is what one "Wants" to happen,
one's "likes and dislikes", and one's "ideology." Every
person seems to have these personal preferences, and almost everyone else - it
seems - more or less disagrees with whatever set of likes and preferred outcomes
you happen to adhere to. Therein lies a problem.
Domestic U.S. political debate, and thus quite often analysis, centers around
our "likes" and preferred outcomes; much less is said about what is
likely to occur and what that will mean for us as a nation. Current events in
Iraq. Afghanistan, and elsewhere are almost a primer on this subject. No
American person I know "likes" what is happening, whatever their
ideology.
Most of the conclusions I come to about international events, trends, and
emerging changes are of this kind: I do not "like" them. Fortunately,
I understand that I am not required to like them and that nobody I lecture to is
required to like them either; they are merely conclusions I have arrived at, and
as such they require of me only a strong defense, not a "liking". I
have spent a career telling people things they do not like to hear. Doing this
better is what I teach.
Effective international affairs analysis springs from just such personal
perspectives regarding one's "likes" in my opinion. It is also almost
guaranteed to get one into trouble from people who cannot separate their
preferences from a considered perspective that runs counter to it. You can
almost hear them say, "That is not the policy" or "That is not
what we want"; All true.
I have a very bright graduate student who keeps sending me articles that he
thinks I will like: "You will like this, Sir" he says. The point seems
entirely lost on him that I prefer to get interesting stuff whether I
"like" it or not; assuming, of course, that he understands what I
like.
This is the common run of things in my experience. We read what we like,
consider what we like, discuss what we like, and so on. Don't do that!!!
It is difficult to like the fact that slavery, organized crime, ethnic and
religious warfare, and other such things exist, but there they are. I want
democracy and "free" markets to spread internationally, but conclude
that this will not happen soon.
If you care to better understand international affairs, try three things to
begin with.
1) Read articles, books, and presses that you do not like. For example, I read
the Wall Street Journal, BBC, and al-Jazeera every day. They do not agree on
much; which I one reason I read them. This is called "triangulation"
of sources. The principle is; What is agreed upon by people who disagree is more
likely to actually be true. More commonly, we pre-screen for people who's
message fits our wants, which is poison to accurate thinking.
2) Do not eliminate bias; rather try to think outward from within the other
person's bias. This is known colloquially as "Walking a mile in their
shoes." Walk ten miles, twenty; heck, live there for a while. You are not
required to buy their ideological "shoes" or agree with them. You
merely want to see where they are going with this some distance out.
3) Check out the big picture. What larger trends are apparent, and how do these
constrain or guide outcomes. Again, you will probably not like these either.
Anti-Americanism is rapidly rising. I do not like that; probably neither do you.
Anti-Americanism is STILL rising whether you like it or not. What are the
implications? As of this morning, it meant in part that the U.S. government has
advised Americans to leave Saudi Arabia; our main source of oil.
There is a great deal more to accurately predicting emerging international
trends, but this seems adequate to keep us busy locally for a while. Try what I
have suggested. See how the world view changes for you.
Thank you.
Copyright Guntram Werther Ph.D. 2004
Copying for non-commercial purposes is authorized so long as attribution of
authorship is given
RETURN
TO DR. WERTHER'S MAIN PAGE
RETURN TO MAIN GOLD CANYON WEBSITE PAGE |