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Emerging Shifts in "Globalism":
Arizona Small Business Strategies for a Changing World
by
Guntram F. A. Werther, Ph.D.
Gold Canyon, Arizona
Presented to the Gold Canyon Business Association on 27 April 2004
______________________________________________
For over a decade, I have been lecturing senior executives from Fortune 500
firms and several international governments about the fact that
"globalization" will not go smoothly; and why that is so. Most
commonly, I used the umbrella of "Doing Business in the New World
Disorder" and my writings and lectures on "profiling international
change processes" as the twin approaches to explaining emerging trends
within the international environment. At this stage, it seems adequate to say
that SOME emerging international markets can certainly provide opportunities in
some cases, but hardly they ever do so without considerable risk and attention
to complexity.
Given the interest of this audience, my focus today will be on discussing
emerging international trends with an eye toward highlighting emerging
opportunities for Arizona small business. This talk is thus a very restricted
exercise in discussing "globalization" - such as it is - and those
means by which this process does / does not proceed.
If you misunderstand the basic change process that is unfolding, you will be
more likely to make mistakes and fail. Therefore, my initial discussion will
detail a few major observations that I have made about
"globalization".
Secondly, I want to move specifically toward some principles about approaching
international ventures that seem to apply to small businesses.
I will assume that you DO NOT 1) have a sophisticated internal business
intelligence organization or 2) have large excess funds that permit the
survivable errors that so many USA Fortune 500 firms have committed.
In sum, I will talk BRIEFLY about how to get good assessments of changing
international environments on the cheap; which is to say in ways that small
businesses can actually afford and do. You do not need experts to do this.
Indeed, during the 1990's until the 2002 stock market crash and the era of
recent WTO/Davos meetings, most experts sold "globalization" as a
simpler thing than it has turned out to be. Always pay attention to that fact.
A) OF THE PATTERNS AND PACES OF "GLOBALIZATION":
What is happening internationally, what isn't, and what does that mean to
Arizona small business.
Forty years ago, about 90% of international trade and foreign direct investment
went to about thirty (30) countries located mainly in North America, Western
Europe, and East Asia. You can probably name these.
Today, after four decades of "globalization", about 90% of
international trade and foreign direct investment goes to perhaps forty (40)
countries, and these are still located mainly in North America, Western (and now
part of Central) Europe, and East (now also part of South) Asia.
Significantly, we can add to our "global destinations" club of nations
the EU expansion countries, India, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Brazil, Chile,
Costa Rica, Mexico, Kazakhstan, and perhaps South Africa.
Lesson #1 for small business is that "globalization" proceeds
glacially, and not at all uniformly. There are very specific and reasonably
predictable reasons why some countries grow, develop, and attract foreign
investment, and why others do not. Most do not. [discussion not included in
online text].
Lesson #2 for small business is that the reasons for these twin facts (glacial
change and non-uniformity) has less to do with business issues than with social,
cultural, political, and "traditions" issues which you can learn and
leverage. Permit me to highlight a few of these [not included in online text].
These twin discussions should convince you of the folly of pursuing a
"global" business strategy or even a "regional" business
strategy. For small business, I suggest that you think in terms of specifically
selected countries and -better yet - metropoles. For Arizona based small
businesses, what are some of these?
B) HOW TO PICK EM: Doing International Competitive Business Intelligence
Analysis on the Cheap.
If there are four preliminary recommendations I can make, they are:
1) Buy and read "The Economist" magazine (no, I do not own stock in
the firm), plus at least two good international newspapers such as the Financial
Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc. (ditto on stock ownership).
2) Read the LOCAL press from the countries and regions where you intend to go.
To do so, go to "Thousands of newspapers on the net" which is located
at "www.onlinenewspapers.com".
There is more than one perspective on things, and most of this stuff is NEVER
presented in the USA press.
3) Read press THAT YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH, as well as the press you like. Hearing
what you NEED to hear is quite different from hearing what you want to hear.
Most of this is NOT in the business press, but in the broader general press. For
example, I read daily The Wall Street Journal, the Times of India, Al-Jazeera,
International Herald Tribune, and several other regional
publications....friendly and unfriendly; daily.
4) Find out and leverage the international knowledge, connections, and expertise
that you may (and probably do) have within your firm.
It is amazing what we overlook that is in our back yard. For example, I had a
very bright business graduate student who spoke several languages, had lived in
several countries, and who was working an assembly line job at a Phoenix firm
while finishing his MBA. Hearing that the firm was pursuing a government
contract in one of "his" countries, he VOLUNTEERED (no pay raise
requested) to guide the assigned managers regarding local cultural and other
country issues, translate language, and so forth. The firm declined. As the
managers left to go to the country, one was overheard to say to the other
"________(name of country), where's that?"
About a year later, and after spending big bucks, the firm never did get the
contract. Don't do that.
What you will discover is that there are relatively few firms where you even
want to do international business, and that they are not the obvious ones in
many cases. You will also get a good whiff of what you will be facing.
Having figured out what and who you have, and having spent sufficient background
time learning to understand the environment in which you hope to succeed, you
may now move.
C) "KEEP IT SIMPLE S_____" PRINCIPLES AND ARIZONA SMALL BUSINESS.
Around here, international usually means Mexico. Let me discuss a few other
options of the general business kind which DO NOT account for your particular
business needs or internal competitive advantages (expertise, contacts, etc);
which may of course alter things. You should have understood that
"global" is entirely overstating the case, and that the world is quite
complicated and unfriendly in many places.
Let me therefore suggest that you simplify by going to where the world is
relatively friendly, features easy access by air (and sometimes land) from
Arizona, and speaks "English". To me, that listing suggests you take a
peek at Chile, Canada, EU (particularly Britain, Netherlands, and Germany),
Malaysia, and Costa Rica. [reasons not presented in the online essay]
D) SUMMATION:
"Globalization" is NOT what the USA press and business community
commonly sells. Pay attention to that.
Next, remember that you must pay as much attention to the environment in which
you hope to succeed as you do to your product or service; they are two
wheels of the cart.
Additionally, most business "intelligence" comes from public and open
sources. Learn to use and leverage that, especially the contacts near to you.
Figure it out yourself. Experts are like swords, and best kept in the scabbard
until appropriately needed. They are NOT daily crutches to compensate for what
you do not yourself understand.
Finally, KISS. This is a big change. International ain't Iowa.
Thank You.
Copyright by Guntram Werther April 2004 - You may copy this article for
non-commercial purposes as long as attribution of authorship is given.
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